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Moving to Shared Urban Mobility: Managing Scale and Transition

Scope

Building on the existing Corporate Partnership Board (CPB) work exploring scenarios for the development of shared and/or automated vehicle fleets and their impacts, this work will draw on in-house modelling capacity and partner expertise to explore realistic adoption curves, roadmaps and policy recommendations to guide the development of shared mobility services.

These scenarios will be tested for several medium-sized cities and at least one major metropolitan area. The project will investigate various shared vehicle deployment scenarios, categorised by selected fleet penetration thresholds and market configurations, and will draw on these to highlight specific regulatory, market design and policy issues. Partners will investigate the potential for adoption of these services by citizens and will investigate the potential limits to the uptake of shared mobility services. The study will explore ways in which decision-makers can maximise benefits while minimising costs during different transition pathways. It will also investigate appropriate performance metrics to gauge progress.

This work will move away from previous “what if” proof-of-concept work undertaken within the CPB towards a more realistic assessment of the transition and scale issues faced by the deployment of shared and possibly automated mobility services.

Work Package 1:

ITF has secured access to Transport for London’s (TfL) network model and will run the shared mobility scenarios developed in the CPB 2015 and 2016 projects. We will adapt the existing modelling framework to the London data and carry out model runs that will allow a comparison with results from the CPB 2015 and 2016 shared mobility project. This project will mainly involve ITF staff coordination with a modelling team from TfL in work package delivery with regular reporting to CPB partners.

Work Package 2:

The second work package will investigate numerous transition scenarios and the issues they raise. These will include the impact of partial deployment of shared fleets in the current urban environment and under different market structures (single dispatcher, multiple dispatcher, other market and concession frameworks). This work will also explore what portion of the population could potentially be attracted to shared vs. individual transport services and under what conditions. It will also look at the threshold where shared mobility services become more competitive with more traditional public transport services (there will be a joint workshop on this topic with Project 2).

Participating Partners: Brisa, Ford, Google, INRIX, PTV Group, SNCF, Transdev, Uber