Future Maritime Trade Flows Roundtable
Summary and Conclusions
Effective planning for transport infrastructure such as ports and their connections to roads, railways and inland waterways, requires foresight regarding future maritime trade flows. The density of these flows will be driven by the demand for traded goods and the cost of transporting them. However, the configuration of flows might be determined by maritime business strategies, new inter-oceanic infrastructures and emerging transport corridors. This ITF Roundtable discusses these determinants for maritime trade flows and develops an analytical framework that can be used by countries to evaluate impacts on their transport systems.
Papers and presentations
Papers and presentations
ITF Freight Model
View Presentation, slides, speech (PDF) (1.15 MB)
Presentation, slides, speech, 15 April 2019
International Transport Forum
Changing Demand for Maritime Trade
View Presentation, slides, speech (PDF) (441.66 KB)
Presentation, slides, speech, 15 April 2019
Kedge Business School
Changing Demand for Maritime Trade
View Discussion Paper (PDF) (2.71 MB)
Discussion Paper, 21 July 2020
Kedge Business School, Bordeaux
This paper analyses the main drivers for maritime trade growth over the last decades and suggests possible drivers for the development of maritime trade in the future.
Maritime Transport Costs and Trade Flows
View Presentation, slides, speech (PDF) (1.23 MB)
Presentation, slides, speech, 15 April 2019
University College London
The Cost of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Shipping
View Discussion Paper (PDF) (2.63 MB)
Discussion Paper, 29 October 2020
University College London
The shipping sector will need to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions significantly over the coming decades in order to align them with the Paris Climate goals. How could this be achieved? What will it cost to bring down the sector’s emissions? Will these costs shift maritime trade flows? This paper offers answers to these questions and identifies areas for further investigation.
Maritime Business Strategies
View Presentation, slides, speech (PDF) (1.34 MB)
Presentation, slides, speech, 15 April 2019
International Transport Forum
China's Belt and Road Initiative
View Presentation, slides, speech (PDF) (1.68 MB)
Presentation, slides, speech, 15 April 2019
Erasmus University Rotterdam
The Belt and Road Initiative: Impacts on Global Maritime Trade Flows
View Discussion Paper (PDF) (2.09 MB)
Discussion Paper, 16 June 2020
Dalian Maritime University
International Transport Forum
This paper analyses the potential impacts on global trade initiated by the Belt and Road Initiative. The Initiative is examined as a collection of planned transport-corridor developments and discusses their impact on maritime trade flows.
The Northern Sea Route
View Presentation, slides, speech (PDF) (1.27 MB)
Presentation, slides, speech, 16 April 2019
ECORYS
Commercial Navigation Along the Northern Sea Route
View Discussion Paper (PDF) (3.34 MB)
Discussion Paper, 13 November 2020
Ecorys Netherlands B.V. Rotterdam
Ecorys Netherlands B.V. Rotterdam
Ecorys Netherlands B.V. Rotterdam
Ecorys Netherlands B.V. Rotterdam
Ecorys Netherlands B.V. Rotterdam
This report assesses the business case for commercial navigation through Arctic waters along the Northern Sea Route and offers insights in the possible impacts on global trade flows.
