The ITF Modelling Framework
The International Transport Forum has developed a set of modelling tools to build its own forward-looking scenarios of transport activity. Covering all modes of transport, freight and passenger, the tools are unified under a single framework.
In contrast to existing transport and energy models, the ITF framework first estimates the demand for transport, based on a set of socio-economic drivers (population, Gross Domestic Product, trade, etc.) before analysing the way this demand may be satisfied. This second step includes a detailed modelling of mode choice. Finally, the models compute the CO2 emissions linked to transport and, depending on the sector, other transport-related variables. For instance, the urban module estimates emissions of local pollutants; the international freight model is able to assess congestion at ports.
The ITF framework can assess the effect of a large range of policies and exogenous impacts. In all models, policies which may impact transport demand or the related CO2 emissions become input parameters. Particular attention was paid to urban policies, such as transit infrastructure provision, parking or land-use strategies, and to their impact on mode shares.
The various models are currently being updated.