ITF Transport Outlook 2025
This edition of the ITF Transport Outlook examines the impacts of different policy measures on global transport demand and equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to 2060. The analysis covers passenger and freight activity across all transport modes. It places a particular focus on the challenges of accelerating decarbonisation efforts, while highlighting the impact delaying action would have on global cumulative emissions. It also explores how to ensure a just transition to a more decarbonised global transport system.
The report analyses alternative policy scenarios for the future of transport, using the ITF’s in-house transport models. In these new scenarios, there is a renewed focus on plausible initiatives that can contribute to bridging implementation and emissions gaps, with an assumed rate of adoption of different policy measures or outcomes phased based on the likelihood that these measures would evolve as quickly as is required.
The Business-as-Usual scenario assumes policies to decarbonise transport continue along their current pathway and considers the implications for transport demand, CO2 emissions and further aspects over the next three decades. The Constrained Ambition scenario assumes governments implement policies focused on accelerating the decarbonisation of their transport sectors. Finally, the All-Out scenario tests the limits of transport demand reduction and technology uptake, highlighting how far towards global objectives the world could go.
The ITF Transport Outlook 2025 is launched at the ITF 2025 Summit held in Leipzig, Germany from 21 to 23 May 2025
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