Travel Transitions: How Transport Planners and Policy Makers Can Respond to Shifting Mobility Trends
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Travel behaviour has evolved in unexpected ways in urbanised areas in the early 21st century. This report examines how significant breaks with past trends happened - and why these shifts were not foreseen. The Covid-19 pandemic adds to uncertainty about future demand to travel. Forecast-led transport planning is not well equipped to handle uncertainty. The report presents new approaches which explicitly address uncertainty, are vision-led and enable the development of resilient plans. It also considers how governance and institutions can be adapted to support such a paradigm shift.
Policy Insights
- Scan for emerging travel trends using a combination of traditional and new data sources.
- Measure the performance of the transport system with indicators that reflect how mobility contributes to societal objectives.
- Take a proactive approach to anticipating travel transitions by scanning developments inside and outside the transport sector.
- Account for uncertainty when making predictions and be explicit about the different sources of uncertainty .
- Shift from a “predict and provide” approach towards a “decide and provide” approach in the face of deep uncertainty.
- Change the mindset and enhance the skillset of the transport-planning workforce.
- Foster a strengthening of international knowledge sharing and co-operation via a “learning by doing” approach.
- Adapt transport governance to better account for uncertainty in planning.